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Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32145/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. No CME or CME shock arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-25T18:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 14:24 UTC on Jul 23. This CME was associated with a M2.5 flare, which peaked at 14:28 UTC on Jul 23, produced by NOAA AR 3765 (S11 E88). Associted type II radio emissions were detected at 14:11 UTC during the flaring activity. It has a projected speed of about 760 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). This CME is directed mostly towards the E and will most likely miss the Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on 25-26 Jul.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
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Lead Time: 8.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-25T09:45Z

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